### Video Transcript

mhm. so in this problem we ‘re kind of playing a game where we ‘re flipping a coin repeatedly and we ‘re trying to see how the proportion of has changed throughout time Or how the probability changes. Mm hmm. So I already have the table already flipped a mint 20 times and we can see the results on the table. So beginning I want to look at the probability of my lead ‘s when I ‘m uh between my 1-5 tosses. So remember for probability is going to be uh the number events occurred. So my sheath, the act of heads over the total amount or the sample distribution space. so in this case the hale model toss as I did. So in the 1st 5 I had a sum of two heads out of five tosses. so in the begin for the inaugural five, my probably probability of gaining heads is to fis Yeah. And then we can keep doing this. What happened ? How ‘s my probably changed for looking at the 1st 10 tosses. So it ‘s the lapp thing. The probability of heads. well, this is going to be the total number of heads. So this is gon sodium be by six over the total number of palaces, which is 10 Or can simplify down to 3/5. And last, what happens with all the tosses ? then one through 20 tosses ? well, this probability of heads is going to equal the whole count of has I obtained which is 10 Over this unharmed measure, which is 20 or 1/2. Yeah. So we did all these tosses. And now the main question we want solution is why can what a frequent patronize this rendition can not be used for probability. so frequent this is like kind of like this we ‘re counting how many has we got and the probability is changing based on the events we saw. First we begin with two fists. then we had three fists and now we had one half. So the reason why we ca n’t use a frequentist rendition is because the probability changes as the number of toxic changes. Um normally when we start doing some looking more probability distributions, we want our probabilities to kind of be the same. Are coherent. Another reason we can think about it is because of odds. so whenever you read newspaper articles, magazines or anything else that we were talking about the odds. so wait one way you can think of vitamin a is yeah P. Which is the probability of it occurring and then 1 -7. Which is going to be it to be the diametric. So P. Is to be in favor. Yeah. And what my sp is not to be in favor. So if I say something has a 0.75 probability. We can look at the US as being 2 0.75 2 0.25 operating room 2321. So this is another way why a frequentist rendition ca n’t work Because if this concept of odds

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