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52 percent of NFL teams to win coin toss win game

52 percent of NFL teams to win coin toss win game

New Orleans Saints bus Sean Payton ca n’t be bothered to pay attention to which of his players calls “ heads ” or “ tails ” for the mint discard before the opening beginning of a plot or overtime. He ‘s sure of one matter, though : “ I do n’t know that I ‘d want to go to Las Vegas with them, ” Payton said. good think. No way would it make common sense to gamble with this bunch. The Saints are 0-11 on coin flips this season, the sort of thing that might make a micromanaging NFL fountainhead coach, well, flip out.

“ It ‘s kind of farcical at this point, ” New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees said. And while the Saints are 7-3 and lead the NFC South despite coming up short every single time on what should be a 50-50 proposition, coin-toss statistics – yes, they do exist – show that the NFL team that won the pregame impudent wound up winning 52.1 percentage of the time through week 10 this season, according to STATS LLC. That ‘s about the lapp as the 52.6 percentage that STATS shows for coin-toss “ victories ” matching up with game victories since the begin of the 2008 temper, when the NFL changed the rules to allow the team that wins the flip to defer its choice until the second half. Like the Saints, the Cleveland Browns ca n’t seem to make heads or tails of why they ‘re oh-fer on coin tosses this season, going 0-9, STATS said. actually, Browns coach Pat Shurmur and captains Phil Dawson, Joe Thomas and Scott Fujita were n’t aware of precisely how bad their fortune has been until asked about it by a reporter from The Associated Press. “ Who keeps that stat ? That ‘s what I want to know, ” said Thomas, a Pro Bowl tackle. He and players on other teams interviewed for this story all said they do n’t spend time figuring out which call to make – or even who will do it – until the clock time comes, with both teams ‘ captains standing at midfield. “ It ‘s kind of like, you lineage up and it ‘s, ‘ OK, you got it. ‘ It ‘s never a big deal, ” Thomas said. “ All we talk about is the strategy : Do we want the musket ball or do we want to defer ? ” For the Saints and Browns, it must feel as though other teams are saying, “ Heads, we win. Tails, you lose. ” The odds of a team losing 11 back-to-back mint flips are about 2,000 to 1, STATS said. “ It ‘s very unlucky for them in particular, but over the course of prison term, that kind of event will happen, ” said Susan Holmes, a professor of statistics at Stanford University. “ When you ‘re tossing a short ton of coins, you could very easily have 11 heads in a row. ” The Super Bowl has been host to an even longer lopsided stripe : The NFC team has won the pass at each of the final 14 backing games, the odds of which are roughly 16,000 to 1. With only a 45-game sample size, the Super Bowl has n’t followed the regular-season swerve of a slender edge to the team winning the flip ; flip winners are only 22-23 in the big game. In 2007, Holmes and other researchers published an academician study about flips that, she explained in a telephone interview, “ proved that the mint has a tendency to come up the same way it starts. indeed if you start the mint on tails over your hitchhike, and then you flip the coin and catch it in your hand, it ‘ll have a 51 percentage prospect of coming up tails. ” Seems like something the Saints and Browns – and anyone else involved in mint flips for any reason all around the earth – might want to think about, correct ? Except for this, when it comes to the NFL : Referees are told to not catch the coins ; rather, they ‘re supposed to let them land on the reason, so Holmes said her survey does n’t apply at all. It ‘s part of a cautiously choreographed ritual outlined by the league, which instructs refs to : • show the heads and tails sides of the coin to each police squad, starting with the home team ;

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• ask the visiting team ‘s captains who will call the chuck ; • ask what that call is ; • announce that choice before the flip ( a rule added in the aftermath of the ill-famed 1998 Thanksgiving Day “ Coin Flip Flap, ” when Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jerome Bettis and official Phil Luckett disagreed about what Bettis called before overtime against the Detroit Lions, who won the game 19-16 ) ; • announce the consequence of the flip ; • have the achiever choose whether to receive the kickoff, or to kick off to the other team, or to pick which end of the field to defend, or to defer its choice until the second half. The biggest coin-flip flop might have come in overtime of the blustering 1962 AFL backing game, when Dallas Texans running back Abner Haynes was ordered by coach Hank Stram to take the side of the field backed by the scent. Haynes won the toss and, apparently figuring the Houston Oilers would elect to receive if he picked a side to defend, told the referee, “ We ‘ll kick to the clock. ” Because the foremost thing Haynes said was, “ We ‘ll kick, ” the referee took that to mean the Texans were choosing to give the Oilers the ball first in OT. And that meant the Oilers got to choose to have the wind at their backs. The Texans get the best Haynes ‘ blunder, though, winning the game in the moment supernumerary period – with the wind in their privilege. here ‘s one thing the NFL does not regulate : the coins themselves. other than when there are limited commemorative coins, such as at the Super Bowl, the league says the referee is creditworthy for showing up with any ol ‘ quarter or half-dollar and using that for the pregame flip. As for whether there actually could be a correlation – as opposed to a, um, concurrence – between the flip and how a game turns out, players and coaches point out there are some advantages to making that choice at the beginning of a game. If a stadium is particularly windy, say, or if you in truth want to get the ball at the begin of the second half. “ You want to be able to dictate what you put out on the battlefield first, whether it ‘s your discourtesy that ‘s feeling good or your department of defense that ‘s feeling dear, ” said Redskins cornerback DeAngelo Hall, who lamented that he “ used to win ‘ em all ” but has n’t been doing angstrom well recently on his coin calls ( Washington is 4-5 on flips this season ). “ It does n’t very matter much, ” Hall concluded, unless the flip comes in overtime. “ Sure got to win that one, you know ? You truly want to win that one, ” he said. One would think thus, anyhow. After all, the NFL altered its postseason OT rules because of concerns the coin flip has an unfairly big character in determining outcomes of games that go past regulation. now in the playoffs, if a team that wins the overtime flip receives the ball and kicks a field finish, the other team gets a possession, excessively. amazingly, teams winning the overtime coin toss this season are only 1-5. One of those losses was by the Atlanta Falcons last weekend against the Saints. The Falcons won the pass, got the ball – and then turned it over on downs by failing to convert a fourth-and-less-than-a-yard at their 29. Moments subsequently, the Saints kicked the winning field finish. “ The curious thing was, ( linebacker ) Jo-Lonn Dunbar was honorary captain. He called ‘ heads ‘ ( at the pregame flip ), and it was tails, ” Brees recounted. “ And then when I got out there for overtime, I called ‘ tails ‘ – and it was heads. therefore become figure, you know what I ‘m saying ? ”

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At the opposite end of the spectrum are the San Francisco 49ers and the Miami Dolphins, who are tied for the league lead at 8-2 – in coin-flip Ws and Ls, that is. The similarities end once the game actually begins, of run : The 49ers lead the NFC West with an 8-1 record ; the Dolphins are concluding in the AFC East at 2-7. “ It ‘s precisely luck. We do n’t have a system or anything, ” 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh said. “ If we do, they have n’t told me. ”

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